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Mathematics
USA
2026

D-Index & Metrics

Mathematics

D-Index
103
Citations
99844
World Ranking
41
National Ranking
29

Research.com Recognitions

  • 2026 - Research.com Mathematics in United States Leader Award
  • 2025 - Research.com Mathematics in United States Leader Award
  • 2013 - Member of the Royal Irish Academy
  • 2009 - Member of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2003 - Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
  • 1994 - Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA)

Overview

Adrian E. Raftery is affiliated with the University of Washington in the United States. Their research spans multiple interconnected fields, including demography, statistics and probability, economics and econometrics, management science and operations research, and general health professions.

Their recent publication record includes several notable papers across high-impact journals. These papers are:

  • "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," published in 2022 in Nature
  • "Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target," published in 2021 in Communications Earth & Environment
  • "Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change," published in 2022 in Communications Earth & Environment
  • "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," published in 2022 in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
  • "How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?" published in 2020 in Population and Development Review

Raftery's frequent coauthors include Hana Ševčíková, Kevin Rennert, Frank Errickson, Brian Prest, and Lisa Rennels, indicating collaboration across both statistical and environmental research domains.

The venues where Raftery most commonly publishes include:

  • arXiv (Cornell University)
  • The Annals of Applied Statistics
  • Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Communications Earth & Environment

The main topics covered in their body of work focus on:

  • Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Global Health Care Issues
  • Demographic modeling and climate adaptation
  • Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Statistical Methods and Inference
  • Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
  • Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

Throughout their career, Adrian E. Raftery has been recognized by several academic honors and fellowships, including:

  • Member of the Royal Irish Academy (2013)
  • Member of the National Academy of Sciences (2009)
  • Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2003)
  • Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) (1994)

Raftery's work combines advances in statistical methodology, particularly Bayesian inference, with applied issues in demography, health, and climate change. Their research contributes to understanding and projecting demographic changes, climate adaptation strategies, and associated economic and policy implications.

Best Publications

  • Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research

    Adrian E. Raftery

  • Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial

    Jennifer A. Hoeting;David Madigan;Adrian E. Raftery;Chris T. Volinsky

  • Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

    Tilmann Gneiting;Adrian E Raftery

  • Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation

    Chris Fraley;Adrian E Raftery

  • How Many Clusters? Which Clustering Method? Answers Via Model-Based Cluster Analysis

    Chris Fraley;Adrian E. Raftery

  • Model-based Gaussian and non-Gaussian clustering

    Jeffrey D. Banfield;Adrian E. Raftery

  • mclust 5: Clustering, Classification and Density Estimation Using Gaussian Finite Mixture Models.

    Luca Scrucca;Michael Fop;T. Brendan Murphy;Adrian E. Raftery

  • Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis

    Peter D Hoff;Adrian E Raftery;Mark S Handcock

  • Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models

    Adrian E. Raftery;David Madigan;Jennifer A. Hoeting

  • Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles

    Adrian E. Raftery;Tilmann Gneiting;Fadoua Balabdaoui;Michael Polakowski

  • Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations

    Thomas J. Diciccio;Robert E. Kass;Adrian Raftery;Larry Wasserman

  • Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness

    Tilmann Gneiting;Fadoua Balabdaoui;Adrian E. Raftery

  • Model Selection and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Graphical Models Using Occam's Window

    David Madigan;Adrian E. Raftery

  • Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models

    Unknown

  • Maximally Maintained Inequality: Expansion, Reform, and Opportunity in Irish Education, 1921-75.

    Adrian E. Raftery;Michael Hout

  • How Many Iterations in the Gibbs Sampler

    Adrian E Raftery;Steven Lewis

  • MCLUST Version 3: An R Package for Normal Mixture Modeling and Model-Based Clustering

    Chris Fraley;Adrian E Raftery

  • Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation

    Tilmann Gneiting;Adrian E. Raftery;Anton H. Westveld;Tom Goldman

  • Model-based clustering and data transformations for gene expression data.

    Ka Yee Yeung;Chris Fraley;Alejandro Murua;Adrian E. Raftery

  • Model‐based clustering for social networks

    Mark S. Handcock;Adrian E. Raftery;Jeremy M. Tantrum

  • On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components. Discussion. Author's reply

    S. Richardson;P. J. Green;C. P. Robert;M. Aitkin

Frequent Co-Authors

Tilmann Gneiting
Tilmann Gneiting Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies
Roger E. Bumgarner
Roger E. Bumgarner University of Washington
David Madigan
David Madigan Northeastern University
Gilles Celeux
Gilles Celeux French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation - INRIA
Raphael Gottardo
Raphael Gottardo Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Michael Hout
Michael Hout New York University
Fionn Murtagh
Fionn Murtagh University of Huddersfield
Joshua A. Salomon
Joshua A. Salomon Stanford University
Anthony O'Hagan
Anthony O'Hagan University of Sheffield
Jane Falkingham
Jane Falkingham University of Southampton

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